What is the role of “reasonable expectation of success” in obviousness determinations?
The “reasonable expectation of success” plays a crucial role in obviousness determinations under patent law. According to MPEP 2143.02, “Obviousness does not require absolute predictability, however, at least some degree of predictability is required.” This means that for an invention to be considered obvious, there must be a reasonable probability that the proposed modification or combination of prior art elements would be successful.
The MPEP further states:
“[A]n expectation of success need only be reasonable, not absolute.” Pfizer, Inc. v. Apotex, Inc., 480 F.3d 1348, 1364, 82 USPQ2d 1321, 1332 (Fed. Cir. 2007).
This principle helps ensure that patents are not granted for inventions that would have been obvious to a person of ordinary skill in the art, while still protecting truly innovative solutions that were not reasonably predictable.
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