How does predictability affect the assessment of obviousness in patent applications?
Predictability plays a significant role in assessing obviousness for patent applications. According to MPEP 2143.02, the level of predictability in a particular art is an important factor in determining whether there is a reasonable expectation of success.
The MPEP states:
“The reasonable expectation of success requirement refers to the likelihood of success in combining references to meet the limitations of the claimed invention.”
In fields with high predictability, such as mechanical or electrical engineering, a reasonable expectation of success may be easier to establish. Conversely, in unpredictable fields like biotechnology or chemistry, a higher degree of evidence may be required to show that success would have been reasonably expected.
Patent examiners consider the predictability of the art when evaluating whether a claimed invention would have been obvious. If the field is highly predictable, even a general disclosure might be sufficient to render a claim obvious. However, in less predictable fields, more specific guidance may be necessary to establish obviousness.
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