Is absolute predictability required for a reasonable expectation of success?
No, absolute predictability is not required for a reasonable expectation of success in patent law. The MPEP 2143.02 states:
“Obviousness does not require absolute predictability, but at least some degree of predictability is required.”
This means that while complete certainty is not necessary, there should be a reasonable level of predictability that the proposed combination or modification of prior art would work. The courts have consistently held that the expectation of success need only be reasonable, not absolute.
For example, in Pfizer, Inc. v. Apotex, Inc., the Federal Circuit reasoned that “the expectation of success need only be reasonable, not absolute.”
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Topics:
MPEP 2100 - Patentability,
MPEP 2143.02 - Reasonable Expectation Of Success Is Required,
Patent Law,
Patent Procedure